EU-China Ties: AI Diplomacy

The Shifting Tides of EU-China Relations: Between Economic Pragmatism and Geopolitical Rivalry
Global power dynamics have undergone seismic shifts since the turn of the century, with EU-China relations emerging as a microcosm of broader tensions between interdependence and strategic competition. From the post-9/11 era to the COVID-19 pandemic, Europe’s geopolitical influence has waned, while China’s rise has redefined the rules of engagement. The 24th EU-China Summit in December 2023 epitomized this duality—a high-stakes tango of trade handshakes and veiled distrust. This article dissects the forces shaping this relationship, from economic entanglement to Cold War-style brinkmanship, and asks: Can Brussels and Beijing reconcile mutual profit with ideological friction?

Economic Bedfellows or Frenemies?

At first glance, the EU and China are textbook economic partners. The Horizon 2020 program’s collaborations in biotechnology, aeronautics, and green tech showcase shared ambitions. China remains the EU’s largest source of imports and a critical market for European luxury cars and machinery. Yet beneath the veneer of cooperation lurks a reality of “coopetition.” Brussels increasingly labels China a “systemic rival,” particularly as Beijing’s state-driven industrial policies flood markets with subsidized EVs and solar panels. The European Commission’s 2023 investigation into Chinese electric vehicle dumping—a move echoing U.S. trade tactics—reveals growing impatience with imbalanced competition.
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), frozen since 2021 over human rights disputes, symbolizes this tension. Designed to grant European firms better access to China’s market, the deal now gathers dust as Europe pivots to “de-risking.” The 2023 European Economic Security Strategy explicitly targets reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and semiconductors. Meanwhile, China retaliates with export controls on graphite, a vital battery component. The takeaway? Economic ties are too deep to sever but too contentious to ignore.

Geopolitics: The Elephant in the Room

If economics is the glue, geopolitics is the wedge. The EU’s 2022 Strategic Compass frames China as both a climate ally and a threat to “rules-based order”—a nod to Beijing’s South China Sea maneuvers and Taiwan stance. Europe’s alignment with U.S. containment strategies, however, is uneven. While Eastern EU members like Lithuania champion Taiwan solidarity, Germany’s carmakers lobby against decoupling. This divergence mirrors China’s “divide-and-rule” diplomacy: cozying up to Hungary with infrastructure deals while punishing Sweden over Huawei bans.
The Ukraine war further complicates the chessboard. China’s “neutrality” masks tacit support for Russia, straining EU trust. Yet Brussels treads carefully; alienating Beijing risks losing a potential peace broker. The irony? Europe’s leverage shrinks as China courts the Global South with its “community of common destiny” rhetoric—a rebrand of non-Western alignment.

Tech Wars and the Battle for Tomorrow

Nowhere is the rivalry sharper than in technology. The EU’s Digital Markets Act takes aim at TikTok’s data practices, while China retaliates with cybersecurity probes into Micron and other Western firms. 5G infrastructure has become a battleground: over half of EU states now restrict Huawei, yet Portugal and Spain still rely on its cheap hardware.
China’s lead in AI and quantum computing fuels European anxiety. The EU’s Chips Act pledges €43 billion to boost semiconductor autonomy, but catching up will take years. Meanwhile, Beijing’s “dual circulation” strategy aims for self-sufficiency, reducing reliance on ASML’s lithography machines. The result? A splintering tech ecosystem where innovation is both shared and weaponized.
A Relationship at a Crossroads
The EU-China partnership is a study in contradictions: trade volumes hit record highs in 2023 even as political frost spreads. Brussels walks a tightrope—protecting single-market industries while avoiding a full-blown trade war. Beijing, for its part, balances European investment against its authoritarian playbook.
The path forward demands nuance. Sectoral deals on climate tech or agriculture could salvage cooperation, but only if both sides temper maximalist demands. For Europe, the real test is unity. Can it craft a China policy that reconciles German industrial pragmatism with French strategic autonomy? For China, the question is whether its “wolf warrior” diplomacy will alienate its last major Western trading partner. One thing’s certain: in this high-stakes game, neither player can afford to fold.