The Indian telecommunications landscape is a fascinating case study in consumer behavior, particularly the stubborn persistence of dual SIM card usage. Despite telecom operators’ repeated attempts to boost revenue through tariff hikes, this deeply ingrained practice has proven remarkably resilient. The latest round of price increases in July 2024 sparked industry speculation about potential SIM card shutdowns, but initial data suggests minimal impact. This isn’t a new phenomenon; a similar scenario unfolded after tariff adjustments in December 2021, and projections for late 2025 and beyond anticipate more of the same. The reasons behind this resistance to consolidation are as complex as they are revealing, offering a glimpse into the Indian telecom consumer’s mindset and the market dynamics at play.
The Roots of Dual SIM Culture
The persistence of dual SIM usage in India isn’t just a habit—it’s a survival strategy. For years, varying network coverage and call rates between operators incentivized users to maintain multiple SIMs to ensure connectivity and optimize costs. Even as network coverage has improved, the habit lingers. The affordability of SIM cards and prepaid plans has historically made it easy for consumers to maintain multiple connections without significant financial strain. With minimum recharge requirements around Rs 150 for Airtel and Jio, the cost of a secondary SIM remains low enough that many users, especially those in lower-income brackets, can justify keeping one for specific purposes—such as data or promotional offers—while relying on another for primary communication.
The Impact of Tariff Hikes
Recent analyses and reports suggest further tariff increases are on the horizon, with projections ranging from 10% to 25% by the end of 2025. Bernstein, a global brokerage firm, anticipates a potential increase exceeding 20%, which could significantly boost Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) to over Rs. 300. Motilal Oswal analysts echo this sentiment, forecasting a 15% hike. However, despite these anticipated increases, experts largely believe that a substantial reduction in the number of active SIMs is unlikely. Post-election tariff adjustments, expected around November-December 2025, are predicted to follow this pattern. While some consolidation and “down-trading”—users opting for cheaper plans—were observed after the July 2024 hikes, the overall impact on subscriber numbers was limited. Jio and Vi, in particular, experienced lower-than-expected revenue gains from this consolidation, suggesting that users are more inclined to adjust their spending within existing plans rather than abandon a secondary connection altogether.
The Evolving Role of Telecommunications
The resilience of the dual SIM culture also highlights the evolving role of telecommunications in the Indian digital ecosystem. Smartphones have become increasingly central to daily life, extending beyond basic communication to encompass financial transactions, access to government services, and participation in the digital economy. Community Health Workers (ASHAs), for example, are increasingly reliant on smartphones and affordable internet access to perform their duties effectively. This expanded functionality necessitates reliable connectivity, and many users maintain a secondary SIM as a backup to avoid disruption. Furthermore, the rise of specialized data plans and promotional offers from different operators encourages users to maintain multiple connections to take advantage of the best available deals. The digital economy post-COVID-19 has further accelerated this trend, with increased reliance on online services and a growing demand for data connectivity. The importance of communication in entrepreneurship and business success also contributes to the need for reliable and diverse connectivity options. Even the global defense electronics sector, experiencing significant growth, relies on robust communication infrastructure.
A Contrast with Global Markets
The situation in India contrasts sharply with other markets where SIM consolidation is more common. South Korea, for instance, has demonstrated success in streamlining its telecom market, even defeating established players like Nokia through strategic domestic development. However, the Indian market is unique due to its sheer size, diverse demographics, and the deeply ingrained habits of its consumers. While tariff hikes are undoubtedly a necessary step for the financial health of the telecom industry, they are unlikely to fundamentally alter the dual SIM culture. Operators may need to explore alternative strategies, such as offering more compelling bundled services or focusing on improving network quality and customer experience, to drive sustainable revenue growth. The future of the Indian telecom industry will likely involve navigating this complex landscape, acknowledging the enduring appeal of dual SIM usage and adapting business models accordingly.
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