Safaricom’s Earnings Surge: Resilience Amid Ethiopia’s Turbulent Telecom Market

East Africa’s telecom giant, Safaricom, has defied economic turbulence to post a remarkable earnings surge, proving that even in the face of currency crashes, security risks, and startup pains, a well-strategized expansion can pay off—eventually. The company, co-owned by Vodacom and Vodafone, has long dominated Kenya’s mobile money and data markets, but its 2022 plunge into Ethiopia was a high-stakes gamble. Two years later, the numbers tell a story of grit, adaptation, and cautious optimism.
While Safaricom’s Ethiopian venture initially dragged down profits, recent financial reports show a 31.9% year-on-year jump in EBIT, thanks to shrinking startup losses and relentless growth in mobile money (M-Pesa) and data services. But let’s not pop champagne yet—the Ethiopian birr’s depreciation forced a downward revision of full-year earnings to between $731 million and $778 million. So, how did Safaricom navigate this minefield? And what’s next for Africa’s telecom powerhouse?

The Ethiopian Gamble: High Risk, Higher Stakes

Safaricom’s Ethiopia expansion was never going to be a smooth ride. The country’s government had tightly controlled its telecom sector for decades before finally opening it to foreign competition—a move Safaricom pounced on. But the euphoria of being Ethiopia’s first private telecom operator quickly collided with reality: inflation, currency instability, and security concerns in conflict-prone regions.
The birr’s freefall hit hard, slashing half-year earnings by 17% to 28.1 billion shillings. Yet, Safaricom’s ability to still sign up 7 million users (4.1 million active) in 2023 suggests something crucial: demand is there, but profitability is a puzzle. The company had to rethink pricing, adjust to local spending power, and double down on cost controls.

Financial Tightrope: Revenue Up, Profits Down

Safaricom’s latest financials paint a mixed picture. Revenue for H1 2025 climbed 15.07% to Ksh 189.42 billion ($1.47 billion), but net profit took a hit from Ethiopia’s forex woes and Kenya’s own economic squeeze. Still, full-year 2024 profits grew 11% to $540 million (KES 69.8 billion), signaling that the worst of Ethiopia’s startup losses may be over.
A key lifeline? M-Pesa. The mobile money platform processed a staggering $836.5 billion in transactions in 2022—a 22% annual increase—proving that even in volatile markets, digital payments are non-negotiable. Safaricom’s bet on fintech is cushioning the blows from infrastructure-heavy telecom expansion.

Strategic Moves: Fintech, Startups, and the Long Game

To future-proof its growth, Safaricom isn’t just relying on airtime and data sales. Its Accelerator Program, in partnership with M-PESA Africa and Sumitomo Corporation, is funneling resources into fintech and content startups. Why? Because Africa’s digital economy is exploding, and Safaricom wants to own the ecosystem—not just the SIM cards.
Then there’s Ethiopia’s Securities Exchange (ESX), a landmark in the country’s economic reforms. As capital markets develop, Safaricom could tap into new funding streams or even list its Ethiopian arm locally. The message is clear: this isn’t a quick cash grab but a decades-long play.

The Road Ahead: Cautious Optimism

Safaricom’s leadership insists Ethiopia will turn profitable by 2025. That’s a bold claim, but not baseless. The birr’s volatility won’t vanish overnight, but neither will Ethiopia’s 120 million people—most still unbanked and hungry for affordable telecom services.
Meanwhile, Kenya remains Safaricom’s cash cow, with M-Pesa and 5G rollouts fueling steady growth. The lesson? Diversify, but don’t neglect home turf.

Final Verdict: A Masterclass in Adaptive Growth

Safaricom’s earnings rebound is a testament to strategic agility. It absorbed Ethiopia’s shocks, leaned into fintech, and kept investors patient. The road ahead is rocky—forex risks, political instability, and fierce competition loom—but if any African telco can crack the Ethiopian code, it’s Safaricom.
For now, the takeaway is clear: in high-risk markets, resilience isn’t just about deep pockets—it’s about smart pivots and playing the long game. And Safaricom? It’s writing the playbook.